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Legal and Economic Aspects of the Entry of the Czech Republic into the Euro Area
Žáček, Ondřej ; Vybíral, Roman (referee)
Legal and Economic Aspects of the Entry of the Czech Republic into the Euro Area Abstract The thesis answers a number of questions related to the entry of the Czech Republic into the euro area. The basic premise is that joining the euro area does not consist only in changing of the national currency, but it must be perceived more comprehensively as a transition to the third stage of the Economic and Monetary Union which has been undergoing dynamic development at the institutional level. The main conclusions of the thesis are as follows. The traditional Maastricht convergence criteria, as they are explicitly formulated in primary law, cannot be regarded as the sole conditions for entry into the euro area. Non-legal aspects are also relevant when the fulfilment of these criteria is assessed by the European Commission and the European Central Bank. In addition, several new institutions such as the Banking Union or the European Stability Mechanism have been established in the euro area, but are not taken into account by the Maastricht convergence criteria. This also confirms that entry into the euro area cannot be reduced to a mere change of the national currency. Another important conclusion is that entering the ERM II exchange rate mechanism, which is necessary to meet one of the convergence criteria, is not...
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Legal and Economic Aspects of the Entry of the Czech Republic into the Euro Area
Žáček, Ondřej ; Kohajda, Michael (advisor) ; Karfíková, Marie (referee) ; Papoušková, Zdenka (referee)
Legal and Economic Aspects of the Entry of the Czech Republic into the Euro Area Abstract The thesis answers a number of questions related to the entry of the Czech Republic into the euro area. The basic premise is that joining the euro area does not consist only in changing of the national currency, but it must be perceived more comprehensively as a transition to the third stage of the Economic and Monetary Union which has been undergoing dynamic development at the institutional level. The main conclusions of the thesis are as follows. The traditional Maastricht convergence criteria, as they are explicitly formulated in primary law, cannot be regarded as the sole conditions for entry into the euro area. Non-legal aspects are also relevant when the fulfilment of these criteria is assessed by the European Commission and the European Central Bank. In addition, several new institutions such as the Banking Union or the European Stability Mechanism have been established in the euro area, but are not taken into account by the Maastricht convergence criteria. This also confirms that entry into the euro area cannot be reduced to a mere change of the national currency. Another important conclusion is that entering the ERM II exchange rate mechanism, which is necessary to meet one of the convergence criteria, is not...
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Czechia's Choice: Would Euro Make a Difference?
Trubelík, Ivan ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
Euro adoption constitutes a major step in the economic integration within the European Union. The aim of this work is to quantify the effects it would have on the Czech Republic should it join the Euro Area at various dates in the recent past. Employing a Global VAR model to make unconditional and conditional counterfactuals of the 29 modeled economies, the probabilities of a higher real output and of lower prices are estimated. The results suggest that, from the viewpoint of the Czech Republic, entering the Eurozone during the financial crisis of 2009 would deteriorate both the recession as well as the deflation. On the other hand, the most favorable entry date was estimated to be the beginning of 2020 with very high probabilities of a larger real output after a few initial periods of a slower growth. The Euro adoption thus appears to be an economic decision with benefits materializing in the longer term rather than an opportunity for an immediate stimulus. JEL Classification C32, C53, C54, C55, E52, F45 Keywords Euro Adoption, Global VAR, Probabilistic Fore- casting Title Czechia's Choice: Would Euro Make a Differ- ence?
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The Evolution of Optimum Currency Area Index: Post-crisis Perspective
Kadlecová, Pavlína ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
This paper estimates the determinants of exchange rate variability for 21 developed economies in 1980-1998. The results show that traditional criteria implied by the optimum currency area (OCA) theory, such as business cycle synchronisation, trade linkages and economy size, determine to a large extent bilateral exchange rate variability. Using the ordinary least squares estimation, we compute OCA indices for European economies vis-à-vis Germany and identify countries showing consistently large or little signs of convergence. We find that since 1998, most European developed economies have converged to Germany whether or not they are using the euro, suggesting that structural similarity is not driven solely by monetary integration. Our results from the model estimated by the generalized method of moments suggest that two additional criteria reflecting labour market flexibility and private credit growth are significant in explaining the exchange rate variability and lead to a ranking of countries different from the traditional approach. We find a positive relationship between the OCA indices and GDP decline during the economic crisis of 2008-09, which further supports the view that the OCA index is a useful indicator of the candidates' readiness to join the Euro Area. We apply the results to the...
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Czech Republic, Slovakia, and the monetary integration in the EU
Bendl, Ondřej ; Karlas, Jan (advisor) ; Jeřábek, Martin (referee)
This diploma thesis focuses on the process of euro adoption in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Regarding the time frame, it mainly covers a period of 2004-2014. Nevertheless in order to maximise plausibility of results, this thesis focuses on relevant moments beyond the above mentioned period as well. The main aim of this thesis is to analyse a variation in the relationship of both examined countries towards the process of European monetary integration. Whereas Slovakia joined the Eurozone in 2009, the Czech Republic has not fulfilled its obligation stemming from the EU membership yet. The secondary aim of this thesis is to verify the power of IR theories dealing with transfer of sovereignty on the supranational level. Thus, this paper strives to identify whether the constructivist or rationalist (for the purposes of this thesis represented by ideational liberalism and commercial liberalism / liberal intergovernmentalism) theoretic paradigm is more accurate in its attempt to explain the examined variation. In order to fulfil this aim, methods of difference and congruence are applied. However, each of these methods shows different results. According to the method of difference, an explanation based on commercial liberal / liberal intergovernmentalist logic of economic-materialistic consequences may...
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Economic and legal aspects of euro adoption in the Czech Republic
NOVOTNÝ, Adam
The Czech Republic has committed itself to adopt the euro with joining the European union in 2004. Until today there has not been any political interest of setting the specific date of euro adoption due to low public approval. Currently, there is an increase of positive public opinion about euro so it is the right time to start an objective discussion. The thesis is divided into three parts. The First part describes the history and evolution of the European monetary union, Maastricht convergence criteria and the theory of optimal currency area. The second part presents possible economic benefits and costs of joining the monetary union. The third and the main part examines the real effects of euro adoption on sample of selected countries with similar characteristics. The impact of euro on main economic indicators was analysed and there has been carried out a comparison between these countries. Also the role of euro in trade of selected countries has been highlighted. Last but not least, the possible impact of euro on country competitivness has been analysed in the context of optimum currency area theory. It is expected that joining the monetary union leads to a boost of bilateral trade which harmonizes the economic cycles of trade partners. The main purpose of this part is to prove the increase of competitiveness of exporters gained from monetary union measured by the raise of the bilateral trade interconnection. Finally these two criteria - gross domestic product alignment and bilateral trade interconnection have been used to describe the suitability of Czech Republic as a candidate country for the European monetary union.
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Integrace Litvy do eurozóny a její dopady na ekonomiku a veřejné mínění
Kachlíková, Eva
This thesis focuses on the political journey of Lithuania into the Euro area and examine the short-term domestic economic impact of the euro adoption in Lithuania. The theoretical part defines the development of Lithuania in the framework of regional cooperation and deals with the fulfilment of the Maastricht convergence criteria. These criteria define the readiness of the entry of Lithuania into the euro area. The practical part deals with interpretation of economic indicators in the Republic of Lithuania. Furthermore, this bachelor thesis uses a public survey. The aim of this part is to compare the expectations of the people with real economic impact. The data have been obtained from the public survey of Eurobarometer under the auspices of the European Commission.
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Czech Republic, Slovakia, and the monetary integration in the EU
Bendl, Ondřej ; Karlas, Jan (advisor) ; Jeřábek, Martin (referee)
This diploma thesis focuses on the process of euro adoption in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Regarding the time frame, it mainly covers a period of 2004-2014. Nevertheless in order to maximise plausibility of results, this thesis focuses on relevant moments beyond the above mentioned period as well. The main aim of this thesis is to analyse a variation in the relationship of both examined countries towards the process of European monetary integration. Whereas Slovakia joined the Eurozone in 2009, the Czech Republic has not fulfilled its obligation stemming from the EU membership yet. The secondary aim of this thesis is to verify the power of IR theories dealing with transfer of sovereignty on the supranational level. Thus, this paper strives to identify whether the constructivist or rationalist (for the purposes of this thesis represented by ideational liberalism and commercial liberalism / liberal intergovernmentalism) theoretic paradigm is more accurate in its attempt to explain the examined variation. In order to fulfil this aim, methods of difference and congruence are applied. However, each of these methods shows different results. According to the method of difference, an explanation based on commercial liberal / liberal intergovernmentalist logic of economic-materialistic consequences may...
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The Evolution of Optimum Currency Area Index: Post-crisis Perspective
Kadlecová, Pavlína ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
This paper estimates the determinants of exchange rate variability for 21 developed economies in 1980-1998. The results show that traditional criteria implied by the optimum currency area (OCA) theory, such as business cycle synchronisation, trade linkages and economy size, determine to a large extent bilateral exchange rate variability. Using the ordinary least squares estimation, we compute OCA indices for European economies vis-à-vis Germany and identify countries showing consistently large or little signs of convergence. We find that since 1998, most European developed economies have converged to Germany whether or not they are using the euro, suggesting that structural similarity is not driven solely by monetary integration. Our results from the model estimated by the generalized method of moments suggest that two additional criteria reflecting labour market flexibility and private credit growth are significant in explaining the exchange rate variability and lead to a ranking of countries different from the traditional approach. We find a positive relationship between the OCA indices and GDP decline during the economic crisis of 2008-09, which further supports the view that the OCA index is a useful indicator of the candidates' readiness to join the Euro Area. We apply the results to the...
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